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Each dot on the map represents a weather station. Zoom in on the map and click on the weather station closest to you - but read more below on how the information relates to your holding.
Negligible Risk
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Very High Risk
This forecast was made live on 24th February 2025, initially for producers with early lambing flocks to look at the risk level for their lambs. Remember, in most cases lambs will be six weeks old before they are eating enough grass to be at risk. In some areas of the UK there may already have been high enough temperatures to allow hatching before lambing time. Use the "Historic Data" tab to see if this is true for your flock - www.scops.org.uk/forecasts/historic-data/2025-data.
The forecast predicts the hatch date for nematodirus based on temperature data from 140 weather stations throughout the UK and should be used in combination with your grazing history (more below) to assess the risk of nematodirus infection in your lambs. To use the forecast:-
For an overview on the forecast, watch the following video. Also read this article for tips on understanding the sequence the weather map spots change colour.
Understanding nematodirus
Nematodirosis is a particularly nasty disease in lambs, causing a high number of mortalities and stunting the growth of many others. It is caused by the Nematodirus battus worm, which has a different lifecycle to other sheep worms. Under certain climatic conditions it can strike very quickly, with little or no warning. The main difference in the lifecycle of Nematodirus battus compared with other parasitic worms is that development to infective larvae takes place within the egg and infection passes from one lamb crop to the next year’s crop. Cold weather delays hatching so when we get a sudden change in temperature it can trigger a mass hatch. If this coincides with the time when lambs are starting to take in significant amounts of grass (over about six weeks old), the result can be devastating. Find out more here.